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Tagged with 'Philip Tetlock'

Beware the Prediction Affliction: Don’t Get Sucked In by Forecasts and Projections

Years ago, an elderly couple went to a country fair. The husband was captivated by an animated psychic promising to tell his age and what kind of person he is. He inserted a coin, and the machine sprang to life. The animatronic clairvoyant peered into her crystal ball, mumbled a few words, and pointed to […]

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Research That Makes You Go Hmmm on…Forecasts and Predictions

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. – Ken Olson in 1977 when he was president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp — a pioneering computer company that no longer exists University of California political psychologist Philip Tetlock spent two decades asking foreign policy experts to make predictions about world […]

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Skip the Forecasts and Build Change Adaptive Organizations

An interview in this month’s Harvard Business Review looked at yet more research showing the folly of expert forecasting. “‘Experts’ Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky” discusses a study by Warwick Business School’s Jerker Denrell who worked with Christina Fang of the Stern School of Business. They analyzed years of experts’ quarterly forecasts […]

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Book Review of Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail – and Why We Believe Them Anyway

Once again we face a fresh New Year with countless possibilities stretching out far beyond the horizon. Will this year be filled with triumphs or tragedies? What changes lay ahead? Is the uncertainty daunting or exciting? Are we creating a new earth or witnessing the end of history? Will this be the year of “The […]

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New Year’s Prediction Alert: It’s Silly Season Again!

If the "experts" weren’t so serious — and often dire — with their predictions for 2011 and beyond, this could be a highly amusing time of year. Amongst all the holiday festivities we could be entertained — even laughingly regaled — by economists, analysts, futurists, tech experts, sociologists, and marketers with their computer models, colored […]

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