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Tagged with 'Steven Theobald'

Beware the Prediction Affliction: Don’t Get Sucked In by Forecasts and Projections

Years ago, an elderly couple went to a country fair. The husband was captivated by an animated psychic promising to tell his age and what kind of person he is. He inserted a coin, and the machine sprang to life. The animatronic clairvoyant peered into her crystal ball, mumbled a few words, and pointed to […]

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Research That Makes You Go Hmmm on…Forecasts and Predictions

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. – Ken Olson in 1977 when he was president and founder of Digital Equipment Corp — a pioneering computer company that no longer exists University of California political psychologist Philip Tetlock spent two decades asking foreign policy experts to make predictions about world […]

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