An interview in this month’s Harvard Business Review looked at yet more research showing the folly of expert forecasting. “‘Experts’ Who Beat the Odds Are Probably Just Lucky” discusses a study by Warwick Business School’s Jerker Denrell who worked with Christina Fang of the Stern School of Business. They analyzed years of experts’ quarterly forecasts […]Read post »
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Tagged with 'Future Babble: Why Expert Predictions Fail - and Why We Believe Them Anyway'
“I confess that in 1901 I said to my brother Orville that man would not fly for 50 years. Ever since, I have distrusted myself and avoided all predictions.” – Wilbur Wright (1867-1912), U.S. inventor “Economists, in particular, are treated with the reverence the ancient Greeks gave the Oracle of Delphi. But unlike the notoriously […]Read post »
We made it through yet another doomsday prediction! The world did not end on December 21 as some felt the Mayan calendar predicted. Around the world interest in survival pods, underground bunkers, and one-way tickets to “apocalypse safe havens” soared as D-Day approached. You should be able to pick up a Mayan calendar at half […]Read post »